Although we see key aspects of the economy stabilise, the commercial property sector continues to face challenges, as many business sectors evolve to keep pace with ever-progressing trends and shifts in demand. 

August tends to be one of the quieter months in the auction calendar, however September’s figures demonstrated an extremely positive response, with a nearly 10% increase in lots offered and sold across the UK. As the economy continues to stabilise, it is fantastic to see members report strong demand and growth in performance.

The next few months are likely to prove busy for the sales market, with stock coming to the market and consumers showing they are keen to stay ahead of Stamp Duty threshold changes due in England and Northern Ireland in April 2025. The lettings market remains extremely challenging, with long-running issues regarding an intense lack of rental stock across the UK.

As we head into the New Year, the sales market is set to see a trend unlike those historically seen across the winter months, with buyers and sellers, especially across England and Northern Ireland, pushing their sales and purchases through to save potentially thousands of pounds before the changes to Stamp Duty thresholds take effect from April 2025.

The announcement of Stamp Duty rises in England and Northern Ireland from April 2025 will likely push more people to the market in hopes of completing to, in some cases, save thousands on their next home purchase. Howevefr, tightened purse strings are being seen across the whole private rented sector.

Although the year to date has seen the economy take a more stable footing, which has assisted in bringing an enhanced level of consumer confidence to the housing market, it is important to consider there are still challenges ahead. The housing sector continues to suffer from a long-standing absence of available stock, within both the sales and rental sectors.

Although the economic outlook remains mixed, the quarter ended with inflation in line with the Bank of England’s target, a precursor to a long-awaited reduction in the base rate. Our agents are bullish regarding capital values and rent levels in key sectors including the Industrial and Land and Yards sectors where demand continues to outstrip supply.

The auction sector is buoyant with 38% of agents reporting increased lot numbers in Q2 2024. Despite this positivity, challenges remain. The economic outlook remains mixed; our members are concerned about the cost of doing business. Positively, the quarter ended with inflation in line with the Bank of England’s target, a precursor to a long-awaited reduction in the base rate.

We entered July with a new government and the prospect of a reset in major housing policy areas. Despite this, and a wetter than normal July, prospective buyer registrations in the residential sales sector were up, and so too were the number of sales agreed. Reflecting seasonal trends alongside the anticipation of an August rate cut, most other sales metrics remained static.

June marks the beginning of the Great British Summer and a seasonal change in the activity of home buyers. Key demand metrics, including the number of prospective buyer registrations and the number of viewings, have reduced slightly as consumer attention turns to the holiday season. In the residential lettings sector supply and demand remains imbalanced, with tenant demand increasing in June and stock levels marginally decreasing.

In the summer budget of 2015, Chancellor George Osbourne, announced his intention to limit the ability of landlords to claim tax relief on finance costs including mortgage fees and mortgage interest payments. Despite the significance of Section 24, it is not clear how landlords have been impacted or of their future intentions. The English PRS is in a state of flux and this research is important to identify and address the challenges.

While both sectors remain resilient, there is much that the next government can do to support buyers, renters such as improving the home buying/renting process and professionalisation of the sector via the regulation of agents. More broadly there is a need for a review of property taxes to make changes which stimulate supply and demand.

Although challenges remain, key economic indicators give cause for optimism. GDP is trending upward, and inflation is edging closer to the Bank of England’s target. Member sentiment varies by sector, but there is notable positivity in the Land and Yards and Industrial sectors. Supply and demand imbalances remain, most notably in the Pubs and Restaurants sector, which continues to be impacted by changing trends.

2024 has started well. In the Residential and Commercial property sectors, there seems to be a return of confidence, probably helped by the hold in interest rates. Catalogue numbers remain strong and registered bidder levels are also high. Our Fine Art and Chattels members report that 2024 has started buoyantly with plenty of bidders keen to get out of the blocks and acquire lots at all price levels and across all fields of collecting and furnishing.

It is clear from member sentiment, that economic uncertainty, and interest rates in particular, are continuing to weigh on the commercial property market. Supply and demand imbalances continue in key sectors, suggesting that there will be a challenging start to 2024.

For the last quarter of 2023 in the property auction sector, catalogue numbers continued to grow substantially, although high numbers of properties continue to be withdrawn before auction. In the commercial auction sector sales and instructions are experiencing a notable surge propelled by corporate insolvencies spanning various sectors. In the goods, chattels, and fine art sector there continues to be a plentiful supply of buyers to create competitive open market bidding in all sectors.