Commercial Outlook Q2 2023

The commercial property market has seen a sluggish start to 2023. Since the Kwarteng budget of September 2022, the market has been subdued. And while we have continued to see small gains in capital values, there seems little drive in the market from investors at present. These patterns are clearly reflected in our latest Commercial Outlook.

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This report is based on a survey of Propertymark commercial agents conducted between 25 April and 23 May 2023.

Propertymark Commercial agents reported an increasingly positive outlook for many sectors

In May, Propertymark Commercial agents reported an increasingly positive outlook for many sectors compared to the last two quarters. Better than anticipated performance of the UK economy has resulted in improved expectations. The land and yards sector is still considered best placed to weather the pressures of inflation and interest rate rises with capital values, rental levels and investment yields all expected to rise over the next year by our experts.

For the third quarter in a row, the pubs and restaurants sector retains the worst overall outlook for the next year. With cost-of-living concerns, energy prices and interest rate rises affecting occupants’ bottom lines, combined with liquidations leading to rising supply, rental levels are expected to decline along with capital values and investment yields.

Keeping an eye on trends

In Q4 2022, our experts highlighted several potential trends to keep an eye on over 2023. These were the repurposing of pubs and offices to residential, and higher lending costs limiting growth – hitting both price and deal volumes and resulting in an increase in cash purchases. As we move through the year, we have been keeping an eye on these trends.

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