Commercial Outlook Q4 2025

Latest insights reveal the sector is showing growing resilience, with easing inflation, a lower base rate, and rising rents helping to rebuild confidence despite ongoing structural challenges. Shifting consumer behaviour, targeted regeneration, and smarter use of data and technology are set to define the next phase of commercial property growth.

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This report is based on a survey of Propertymark commercial agents covering the fourth quarter of 2025 and is supplemented by analysis of key statistics relevant to the commercial property market.

Overall, the year has been challenging and rewarding. The commercial market is in a more positive position with aspects such as inflation and base rates set more favourably for both consumers and investors, and will prove to be the foundation for how 2026 will likely play out.

Economic outlook

The Bank of England base rate sat at 3.75% for the latter part of December 2025. Inflation stood at 3.6%. However, this remains significantly above the Bank of England’s targeted figure of 2%. GDP is estimated to have marginally climbed to 102.8% in November 2025.

Rents levels

Members reported that 62% were seeing an increase in rent levels, 8% reported that rents were staying the same, and 7% said rents were decreasing following the review. 

In the Industrial Sector and Takeaway Sector, members are upbeat about rents. However, sentiment in the Pubs and Restaurant Sector is negative.

Supply and demand

In the Leisure sector, 50% forecast an increase in supply, with 25% also forecasting a potential increase in demand. Whilst in the Takeawy Sector, 25% forecast supply to increase, and 25% foresee demand within the industrial sector to remain steady.

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